Trump Media Stock Volatile On Election Eve As Polls, Betting Markets Predict Tight White House Race
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ:DJT) shares are volatile Monday as polls and prediction markets show a tight race with less than 48 hours to go in the U.S. presidential election.
What To Know: Trump Media & Technology stock has become a proxy for the presidential election outcome and the stock has dropped in the last week as the race draws to a close. Both polls and prediction markets turned away from a Trump win near the middle of last week and Trump Media shares slumped more than 20% as a result.
Polls: Though the election remains a very tight race, Harris has pulled ahead in polling of early voters in several swing states. New polling from the New York Times and Siena College shows Kamala Harris with an 8% lead among early voters while Donald Trump is ahead among voters who plan to vote but have not yet cast a ballot.
The poll also found Harris was slightly ahead in three swing states, with Trump leading in one while the other three swing states remain too close to call.
Nationally, Trump and Harris are neck-in-neck, both notching 49% of registered voters in a new poll released Sunday by NBC News.
Prediction Markets: Harris took the lead on the Kalshi prediction market late last week. That’s a major reversal from odds that showed Trump with a 65% chance of victory as recently as Tuesday afternoon.
The Kalshi forecast now has odds in favor of Trump once again, with a 54.5% chance of regaining the White House.
The PredictIt market shows Harris with a slightly higher chance of victory than Trump. Trump maintains his advantage on Polymarket, which has him with a 55% chance of victory, but that is down from a 67% chance five days ago.
The Election Betting Odds website, which aggregates betting markets, shows Trump pulling ahead with a 55% chance of victory and 44.6% for Harris.
Why It Matters: Investors will be watching closely as the polls close on Tuesday night. A recent report from S3 Partners suggested Trump Media shares could rocket higher on a Trump victory based on the increased short squeeze potential and the options market’s implied move of 50%.
Yet S3 Partners said the same model suggests that DJT stock “could become worthless” if Trump loses the election.
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