Bernstein analysts say Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is poised for new highs, driven by accelerating corporate treasury accumulation, record ETF inflows and a sharp decline in exchange-held supply.
The firm cites a tightening supply-demand dynamic, with institutions and corporates holding nearly 9% of Bitcoin’s total supply, creating a potent setup for price appreciation.
What Happened: Bitcoin is heading toward new highs as a supply squeeze intensifies across the market, according to a new research note from Bernstein on Monday.
The firm pointed to a combination of aggressive accumulation by corporates, record spot ETF inflows and the declining availability of Bitcoin on exchanges as the key drivers behind its bullish outlook.
Bernstein analysts highlighted that Bitcoin balances on exchanges have fallen sharply to 13% of circulating supply, down from 16% at the end of 2023.
“Retail selling into corporate treasuries appears exhausted,” the note stated, emphasizing that entities such as Softbank, Tether (CRYPTO: USDT), and Bitfinex have significantly boosted their holdings through ventures like Twenty One Capital.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, after a period of flat activity, recorded net inflows of $3 billion last week alone, nearing the November post-election record of $3.3 billion.
Currently, ETFs collectively hold more than 5.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply, roughly $110 billion in assets under management.
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Why It Matters: Bernstein also pointed to broader structural changes, including the establishment of the U.S. government’s “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” which, if expanded beyond seized assets, could trigger sovereign-level competitive accumulation.
“The Bitcoin accumulation game is becoming highly competitive,” Bernstein said. “Supply is tightening while institutional ownership of Bitcoin ETFs has surged from 20% in September 2024 to 33% in 2025.”
The report further downplayed short-term correlations between Bitcoin and traditional assets like Nasdaq stocks or gold, attributing them to liquidity-driven trading patterns rather than fundamental linkages.
Bernstein emphasized Bitcoin’s unique demand-supply trajectory, underpinned by its immutable 21 million coin cap, as the core driver of its long-term value.
Bernstein concluded that the current momentum is strong enough to push Bitcoin to fresh highs in 2025, with any future U.S. sovereign purchases serving as an unpriced catalyst that could further accelerate adoption and price appreciation.
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