Good Morning Traders!
Today’s economic calendar closes out the week with limited U.S. data, but the bigger event is quadruple witching. Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, and Capacity Utilization arrive at 9:15AM ET, followed by the Leading Index at 10:00AM ET. Under normal circumstances those releases would be the primary scheduled catalysts, but today’s quarterly expiration could have a much larger influence on volume and market structure.
Quadruple witching occurs when stock index futures, stock index options, individual stock options, and single stock futures expire together. Today is particularly notable because U.S. single stock futures disappeared after the last major U.S. venue exited the market in 2020 and only returned this summer. For roughly six years, the quarterly expiration commonly referred to as “quad witching” was technically a triple witching event. With single stock futures back, today marks the first genuine quadruple witching expiration in nearly six years.
For traders, quadruple witching does not automatically mean the market has to move violently in one direction. It means an unusually large number of derivatives positions are expiring, being closed, exercised, hedged, or rolled simultaneously. That can produce substantially heavier volume, temporary price pinning around large strikes, sharp reversals, unusual index and single stock flows, and bursts of volatility as dealer hedges are adjusted. Today’s event also lands immediately after this week’s FOMC rate hike, adding another layer of positioning as markets continue digesting the new rates environment.
The practical takeaway is that today’s tape may behave differently from a normal Friday. A move through an important level can be driven by mechanical expiration flow rather than genuine directional conviction, while price can also become unusually sticky around heavily positioned strikes before those positions disappear. Watch volume, acceptance, order flow, and whether moves survive after the expiration related flow clears rather than treating every breakout or rejection as informational. With the first genuine quadruple witching in roughly six years landing immediately after FOMC, expect the potential for some terrible price action before the market resets next week.
Now, we will discuss SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY is currently trading around 761.50 as markets close out the week with limited economic data but a much larger market structure event: the first true U.S. quadruple witching in roughly six years. If buyers defend 761.50, a move toward 767.50 may develop, followed by 773.50 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 779.50 would improve the short term structure and put buyers back in control.
If SPY loses 761.50 with conviction, sellers may press into 755.50. A breakdown there could expose 749.50, while continued weakness may bring the 743.50 region into focus. Today’s expiration flows can create unusually heavy volume and mechanical buying or selling that does not necessarily reflect a fundamental change in sentiment, so acceptance around key levels may matter more than individual prints.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)
QQQ is currently trading around 719.25 and continues to recover as technology shows improving momentum. If buyers defend this pivot, price may advance toward 726.25, followed by 733.25 if momentum strengthens. Sustained strength above 740.25 would indicate improving institutional demand across technology.
If 719.25 fails to hold, sellers may drive price toward 712.75. A deeper breakdown could expose 706.25, while continued weakness may bring the 699.75 region into play. With substantial derivatives activity concentrated across both QQQ and its largest components, today’s quadruple witching flows could contribute to sharp intraday rotations or temporary pinning around heavily positioned strikes.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
AAPL is currently trading around 337.25 and continues to demonstrate considerable relative strength. If buyers defend this pivot, price may rotate toward 342.50, followed by 347.75 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 353.00 would reinforce the bullish short term structure.
If 337.25 breaks lower, sellers may test 332.25 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 327.25, while deeper weakness may bring the 322.25 region into focus. With single stock futures once again part of the quarterly expiration cycle, individual names like AAPL could also experience additional expiration related flows today.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
MSFT is currently trading around 497.25 and remains directly beneath the psychologically important 500 level. If buyers establish acceptance above 500, price may advance toward 504.50, followed by 511.75 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 519.00 would materially improve the short term structure.
If 497.25 fails to hold, sellers may press into 490.25. A deeper pullback could test 483.25, while continued weakness may bring the 476.25 region into play. With expiration flows potentially adding noise to today’s tape, sustained acceptance above or below 500 should carry more weight than a brief intraday break.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVDA is currently trading around 220.00 and remains an important leadership gauge for semiconductors and QQQ. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 227.25 may develop, followed by 234.50 if momentum strengthens. Sustained trade above 241.75 would indicate renewed upside expansion and stronger semiconductor participation.
If 220.00 fails to hold, sellers may test 214.00 quickly. Continued downside could extend into 208.00, while deeper weakness may bring the 202.00 region into focus. NVDA’s heavy derivatives activity makes today’s expiration particularly relevant, with positioning around major strikes potentially influencing intraday price behavior.
Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
GOOGL is currently trading around 355.75 and showing improved momentum after its extended period of relative weakness. If buyers defend this level, price may rotate toward 362.25, followed by 368.75 if momentum improves. Sustained strength above 375.25 would reinforce the recovery.
If 355.75 fails to hold, sellers may guide price toward 349.75. A breakdown there could expose 343.75, while continued weakness may bring the 337.75 region into play. Continued participation alongside QQQ would provide further evidence that GOOGL’s recent relative weakness is beginning to improve.
Meta Platforms Inc (META)
META is currently trading around 692.00 and remains one of the strongest mega cap names in the market. If buyers defend this pivot, a push toward 700.00 may develop, followed by 708.00 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 716.00 would reinforce the bullish structure and continued institutional demand.
If 692.00 breaks lower, sellers may guide price toward 684.50. A deeper pullback could test 677.00, while continued weakness may bring the 669.50 region into focus. META’s continued relative strength should remain an important confirmation signal for broader mega cap participation.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
TSLA is currently trading around 368.50 and continues to maintain its improved short term structure. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 377.00 may develop, followed by 385.50 if momentum continues. Sustained strength above 394.00 would reinforce bullish momentum and indicate continued speculative demand.
If 368.50 fails to hold, sellers may test 360.50 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 352.50, while deeper weakness may bring the 344.50 region into play. TSLA’s heavy options and derivatives activity could make today’s expiration flows particularly noticeable around heavily positioned price areas.
Final Word: Good luck, trade safely, and have a great weekend!
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
